The All Nigeria People's Party primary is on today. The latest news is that the candidates have pulled out to back General Muhammadu Buhari, the former military head of state.
Buhari is from the same state as Umar Yar'adua, and is a lot more popular. Even in Katsina state where Yar'adua is governor, Buhari will definitely be the favourite to win, given a free and fair ballot.
And here's the rub. Buhari contended in 2003, which everyone says was the worst case of a rigged election anyone has seen. If Buhari runs again against Yar'adua, it is unlikely the People's Democratic Party will leave it to chance.
The remaining question is who will Buhari pick as his running mate. Yar'adua's pick of Goodluck Jonathan is a surprising one. A friend said: "If they had picked a charismatic South South governor, like Cross Rivers' Donald Duke or Rivers' Peter Odili, as the VP he would have overshadowed Yar'adua. The challenge for the ANPP is to get a credible person from the South South to be a vice president. They will struggle to do that."
I've heard a suggested theory about what they could do. The ANPP recently announced an alliance with the Action Congress, Which is the party started by Vice President Atiku. Someone heard Senate President Ken Nnamani may leave the People's Democratic Party and join the AC.
One colleague said: "A Buhari Nnamani ticket would mean trouble for the PDP."
Such is the situation that most governors are playing both sides. I have heard the Delta State Governor James Ibori, who financed Umar Yar'adua's campaign (and is the man pictured in the photo below, standing on the right holding Yar'adua's hands up. In the large photo you can see how much the other man is gripping his forearm, forcing his hands in the air) has also been funnelling money into the Action Congress.